Despite the security-political crisis between Russia and the West, it remains unlikely that Russia desires an open military conflict with NATO. Russia will, therefore, be very attentive to avoiding its military initiatives, including in Ukraine, triggering an armed conflict with NATO.
However, the risk has increased that Russia will conclude that continued Western support for Ukraine effectively poses a threat to Russia’s territorial integrity after the annexation of the occupied areas in Ukraine.
Should Russia choose to use military means against a NATO country, it is highly likely to take the form of military actions directed at logistical infrastructure in a country bordering Ukraine, where the infrastructure is used to provide military support to Ukraine.
However, it is likely that in an escalating crisis, Russia will initially carry out more limited operations such as sabotage and cyber attacks, which can subsequently escalate in severity and risk tolerance in terms of traceability to Russia.
The Danish Defence Intelligence Service assesses that the military threat from Russia to NATO is LOW. The direct military threat to Denmark remains NONE.
NO direct military threat from Russia to Danish contributions to the eFP or NATO’s rapid response forces. The Baltic Sea region has become an area characterized by very high tension between Russia and the West. This is due to the war in Ukraine, but also Sweden’s and Finland’s applications for NATO membership and the leaks in the gas pipelines Nord Stream 1 and 2. The risk of unintended escalation has therefore generally increased in the region.
The direct military threat to Danish contributions stationed in NATO’s enhanced Forward Presence in Estonia and Latvia, or to Danish contributions to NATO’s reaction forces, remains NONE.
Influence, Espionage, and Sabotage
Russia extensively attempts to portray the war in Ukraine as a proxy war between Russia and the entire West, aiming to undermine and destroy Russia. Russia may, therefore, utilize additional Danish and allied contributions to the Very High Readiness Joint Task Force (VJTF) or contributions within the framework of other NATO units to conduct disinformation campaigns aimed at Russia’s own population as well as a Western audience.
The threat from influence and disinformation is VERY HIGH.
